Saturday 17th November

Back over 2.5 goals (4/7, Betfred) in the Arsenal/Spurs game

Today’s 12.45 Kickoff see Arsenal meet Spurs in the first London derby of the season between these 2 rivals.  This fixture is well known for its high tempo and end to end attacking football, you would have to go back to the 2008/09 season to find a 0.0 draw between these two teams, since that stalemate all 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals with last season 2 matches producing 10 goals!

Arsenal last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals, they are scoring goals but are also leaking goals in defence, they have scored 13 goals in those matches and conceded 12.  Spurs are in a similar position, 4 of their last 5 matches have seen more than 2 goals, scoring 7 goals and conceding 7.  Arsenal and Spurs are better at attacking than defending and with the vast amount of talent on show from both sides today and the bragging rights for the winner this match could go either way but one thing is certain, there will be goals!

Both teams will be looking to put one over their arch rivals today with plenty of goals on the cards in this one.

Back over 2.5 goals (7/10, Bet365) in the QPR/Southampton game

As predicted last week the QPR/Stoke game finished under 2.5 goals.  As I said in last week write-up Mark Hughes has changed his tactical approach in recent weeks, the Hoops are starting games cautiously in order keep a clean at the start of games so they can ease their selves into the game before finding themselves 1.0 down.  The Hoops last 4 games have finished under 2 goals, they have scored 2 goals and conceded 4 in those matches.  That pattern needs to change against fellow strugglers Southampton today and with Mark Hughes time running out he knows this afternoon is a must win game and one where QPR can attack and be the aggressor against a Saints side that have conceded the most goals in the league.  Today is not a day for the Hoops to sit back and soak up the pressure from the opposition, today Hughes needs to show the fans and board that he is the right man to get QPR moving up the table and look positive and attack at home.

8 out of the 11 matches Southampton have played in the Premiership this season have finished with more than 2 goals being scored.   Southampton have conceded a mammoth 29 goals in their opening 11 games and Like QPR Nigel Adkins side have been more cautious in recent weeks and have been more defensive for the same reasons as their opponents.  Saint do have talent within their side and are capable of scoring goals especially against a team with a similar poor defensive record.

Both sides will see today as winnable and a springboard to kick start their season, expect goals.

Back Newcastle (Evs, Betvictor) to beat Swansea

Newcastle are 10th in the League after 11 matches with 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 loses, scoring 12 goals and conceding 15.  All 3 of Newcastle league wins have come at home where the crowd really get behind their team, St James Park is never an easy place to visit.  The Geordie faithful will be looking for a performance and a win from their side after a poor showing last week at home to West Ham where they were haunted by one of their old players, Kevin Nolan.  Coloccini and Cabaye are both absent from the starting line-up today but Newcastle have enough talent in their side to cope and I expect the likes of Ben Arfa, Cisse and Ba to cause problems for Swansea today.

Swansea are 1 point and 1 position behind Newcastle in 11th spot in the league with 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 loses, scoring 16 goals and conceding 15.  The Swans are in poor form away from home in the league at present with no wins from their last 4 matches, losing 3 and drawing last weekend against Southampton who will count themselves unlucky they didn’t win the game.   They have only scored 1 goal in those 4 matches whilst conceding 6.

Expect Newcastle to get back to winning ways against a Swansea side struggling on their travels.

Back Everton (10/11, Betvictor) to beat Reading

Reading are 18th in the Premiership having played 1 game fewer than the rest of the league.  They have 0 win, 6 draws and 4 loses, scoring 12 goals and conceding 18.  Reading home form hasn’t been dreadful this season having only lost 1 game, that coming against Tottenham, the problem is they have drawn 4 of the 5 games they have played and today they face an inform Everton side who are full of confidence and will fancy the challenge of taking maximum points from the Madejeski Stadium.   Reading don’t posses much of a threat upfront and have a poor defence that have conceded 9 goals in their 5 home matches.

Everton are the surprise package of the season, everyone knows how good this side is that David Moyes has built but unlike previous seasons Everton have started the season brightly, they are 4th in the league with 5 wins, 5 draws and 1 lose in their opening 11 games.  After 4 draws in a row Everton got back to winning ways against Sunderland last weekend and will be looking to extend their winning run.  The impressive Mirallas is injured for today’s match but with the likes of Pienaar, Fellaini, Jelavic and a Leon Osman on a high after a good display on his international debut expect Everton to have too much firepower for Reading to handle

Everton to make it 2 wins from their last 2 matches in the league

Saturday 10th November

Back under 2.5 goals (4/5, Stanjames) in the Stoke/QPR game

Stoke are in fine form defensively at home, 10 of their last 12 matches have produced less than 2.5 goals and they have only conceded 1 goal in their last 4 matches.  The likes of Huth, Shawcross and Wilkinson have been playing together for many seasons and collectively they have created a tight unit at the back that’s hard to beat.  Stoke are 15th this season with 9 points from 10 games, the reason for their low league position is down to drawing too many games, they have 1 won, drawn 6 and lost 3, scoring 8 goals and conceding 10.

QPR are yet to win a game in the Premiership this season, they are 19th in the league with 0 wins, 4 draws and 6 loses, scoring 8 goals and conceding a hefty 19.  The Hoops have tightened up the defence in recent weeks with their last 3 matches against Arsenal, Everton and Reading all being under 2.5 goals.  Mark Hughes is starting to realise he can’t win games conceding so many goals, QPR have numerous attacking talent to choose from in their squad but less options at the back, that being said QPR are now playing a less open game and are concentrating on keeping games tight, not conceding goals and getting a bit of luck at the other end.

Expect tomorrow to be a tight affair, neither side will want to concede due to the lack of goals being scored by both at the other end, 16 between them in 20 games.

Back Coventry (21/20, William Hill) to beat Scunthorpe

Coventry have found life hard in League 1 since being relegated from the Championship, they are 19th in the table with 4 wins, 5 draws and 7 loses, scoring 18 goals and conceding 23.  Since the appointment of new manager Mark Robbins in mid September Coventry have vastly improved, losing only 3 of their last 11 games.  Coventry have won their last 3 matches in all competitions and beat League 1 high flyers Crawley Town 3.1 at home last weekend.  In striker David McGoldrick they have a forward capable of scoring on a regular basis, he has 9 goals to his name so far and will hopefully add to that tally on Saturday.

Scunthorpe have also struggled this season, they sit 3 positions below their opponents in 22nd with 3 wins, 5 draws and 8 loses, scoring 15 goals and conceding the most goals in the league, 28.  They went 8 games without a win before beating a Walsall team who hadn’t won in their last 9 fixtures, before the win last weekend they had lost their last 3 matches and conceded a total of 10 goals in doing so.

Expect a revitalised Coventry to extend their winning run on home soil.

Lay MK Dons (2.32, Betfair) to beat Sheffield United

MK Dons are 8th in the table with 26 points from 16 games with 7 wins, 5 draws and 4 loses.  They have a similar goal aggregate to today’s opponents having scored a lowly 19 goals but conceded only 11.  MK Dons have been very inconsistent this season but their home form remains rock solid with only 1 lose coming to inform Stevenage.  The Dons are in decent form of late winning 2 and drawing 1 in their last 3 fixtures, that being said Sheffield United are a class above the likes of Cambridge City, Scunthorpe and Leyton Orient and will be a tougher test for the home side tomorrow.

Sheffield United are 2nd in the League, 2 points behind first place Tranmere Rovers.  United have been the most consistent team in the league this season and along with Manchester City are the only unbeaten team in the football league thanks to 8 wins and 8 draws from 16 matches.  I have been a big follower of United this season, in my opinion they are the best team in League 1.  Utd are solid at the back, conceding the fewest goals in the League, they have consistently performed well this season and are in fine form of late, winning 5 of their last 6 matches, conceding only 2 goals and scoring 9.

I can’t see United unbeaten record ending tomorrow and the odds for laying MK Dons are very attractive.

Tuesday 6th November

5 fantastic selections to follow this week with 3 Champions League ties and 2 English league games to back.

Back Bournemouth (4/6, General) to beat Shrewsbury

Bournemouth are 16th in League 1 with 18 points coming from, 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 loses, scoring 24 goals and conceding 27.  Bournemouth were on a 4 game losing run before the return of Eddie Howe as Manager at the beginning of October, since his return Bournemouth have won 4 games and drawn 1 scoring an impressive 16 goals in the process.  They have won their last 3 at home and will be looking to continue their impressive form against a Shrewsbury side in poor form.

Shrewsbury are 20th in league 1 with 14 points coming from 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 loses, scoring 16 goals and conceding 20.  Shrewsbury are in poor form of late, they haven’t won in their last 3 league games, drawing 1 and losing 2.  At the weekend Shrewsbury lost to Conference side Hereford in the FA cup, they have conceded 11 goals in their last 4 games and will find Bournemouth a tough place to play on Tuesday night.

Look for the home side to continue their impressive run of form and beat Shrewsbury.

Back Crystal Palace (20/21, Betvictor) to beat Ipswich

It’s the battle of the new managers at Selhurst Park where Ian Holloway takes charge of his eagles for the first time against newly appointed Mick McCarthy Ipswich side.  Ian has the luxury of taking over a team playing well and winning games, Palace are unbeaten in their last 11 matches, they beat Blackburn with ease at the weekend and have scored 12 goals in their last 5 games.  With this being Holloways first game in charge his fine new players will be looking to impress their new manager and show him how good their side are.

Mick McCarthy took over at Ipswich last week and instantly did what Paul Jewell couldn’t in 12 consecutive matches, win!  McCarthy recorded his first win with a 1.0 victory at St Andrews against a poor Birmingham side.  Ipswich Town are bottom of the Championship on 10 points with 2 wins, 4 draws and 8 loses, Town have scored the fewest in the league, 11 goals from 14 matches, they have conceded 26 in total.  Just like the Palace the Ipswich players will be looking to show their new manager what they can do in order to gain a starting birth in the side but these Ipswich players need their confidence rebuilding and will struggle tomorrow.

Expect Ian Holloway to come out on top in the battle of the new managers

Back Olympiakos (20/21, Betvictor) to beat Montpellier

Olympiakos are top of the Greek league, 5 points ahead of second place PAOK on 25 points with 8 wins and 1 draw from 9 games, scoring 22 goals and conceding 5.  Olympiakos are a strong team at home in both domestic and Europe football, they are used to playing Champions League football and beating big sides, they beat Arsenal 3.1 in last season group stage.  Olympiakos are 3rd in Group B after 3 games, losing at home to Schalke, losing away at Arsenal and winning away at Montpellier in their last fixture.

Last season French Champions Montpellier are struggling in Ligue 1 and the Champions League.  They are 14th in the league with 12 points from 11 matches, 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 loses.  Montpellier have 1 point from their 3 opening games in their first ever participation in the Champions League, they have lost both home games to Olympiakos and Arsenal and scored a late equaliser in order to gain a draw away at Schalke.

Olympiakos need to win tomorrow night to give themselves a chance of qualifying and with their home form they should get the win

 

My final 2 selections are the same bets as I posted in the previous round of Champions League but this time round both teams play on home soil.

Back Real Madrid (1/2, Bluesquare) to beat Borussia Dortmund

I am backing Real Madrid for the same reason I selected them in the previous round (http://www.cklfootballtips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/tuesday-23rd-wednesday-24th-october.html) Since losing in Dortmund Real Madrid have won all 3 of their fixtures and scored 13 goals, Dortmund have won 2 and drawn 1 scoring 6 goals.  I expect Madrid to win on home soil.

Back Manchester City (9/20, Betvictor) to beat Ajax

Just like Real Madrid I selected Manchester City to win away in the previous round against Ajax, but they lost. (http://www.cklfootballtips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/tuesday-23rd-wednesday-24th-october.html)  City need to win tomorrow night or they are out of the Champions League.  City face a miracle to qualify to the next round and I can’t see them qualifying even if they win tomorrow. That being said City won’t give up until mathematically possible and will want to show the rest of Europe what they are capable of in their remaining games.  City haven’t hit top form in recent weeks winning once and drawing once since the loss in Amsterdam and have only scored 1 goal.  Ajax have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1, since they played City, scoring and conceding 4 goals.  City have to go all out in order to win and although they are not in good form, odds of 9/20 with Betvictor are respectable and worth backing with City playing at home.

Saturday 3rd November

Back Chelsea (5/6, Coral) to beat Swansea

Chelsea lost their unbeaten league record last Sunday when losing at home to Manchester United.  They clawed their way back into that game, getting back to 2:2 after finding themselves 2:0 down, had it not been for the sending offs for Ivanovic and Torres they may not of lost.  Apart from that lose Chelsea have looked emphatic this season. Gone are the Mourinho days of winning 1-0 with strong, athletic, powerful players, the strict shape of the team is now not so rigid with players now interchanging positions with a passing game.  After a summer of high profile departures and big money acquisitions Chelsea have reduced the current age of their squad, bringing in bucket loads of young potential and losing the old guard and dead wood.  The current Chelsea side now play the flowing attacking football Abramovic has craved for years and the Stamford Bridge faithful are loving the change in tack-ticks and the new entertaining philosophy.  The likes of Hazard and Oscar have settled well and added a new dimension to the Chelsea game working well with the talented Mata.  Chelsea have too much movement and quality on the ball against a Swansea side that play a very open game which will suit a Chelsea side who create countless opportunities to score goals.

Swansea led the league after the first 3 rounds of matches, winning all 3, conceding no goals and scoring an impressive 9, not a bad start to the season for new boss Michael Laudrup.  Since those early lofty days Swansea have trickled down the league having only won 1 game in their last 7 premiership matches, that coming at home in a 2.1 win against an up and down Wigan side.  Swansea aren’t in great form at present but still maintain a decent home record having only lost once at home this season, that coming against an inform Everton side. Apart from Everton, Swansea have yet to face a big side or a side in good form, they have failed to keep a cleansheet since their opening 3 matches and have conceded 13 goals in the 7 scoring only 6.  

Expect Chelsea to have too much flair and creativity against Swansea tomorrow and get back to winning ways.

Back Manchester City (3/4, Stanjames) to beat West Ham

One would think I have a vendetta against the Hammers, I have opposed them on more than one occasion this season.  To all my West Ham fans that follow me I can assure you I don’t, I do find them an easy side to predict though and they have done us proud so far in all 3 selections they were involved in, scoring more than 2.5 goals in both matches where goals were the selection and losing at home to Arsenal.  If you are a West Ham fan stop reading now as once again I am backing the opposition to put the mighty Hammers to the sword.  I don’t think there is much more I can write about the Hammers that I haven’t already in previous posts, West Ham are a very solid side with some top players, when on song they are a match for any side in the league but on an off day they are a poor side who struggle to score goals.  Against superior opposition in need of a win and a performance I see them struggling.

Manchester City look a shadow of the side we saw tear teams apart at this stage last season.  Last season City were keeping clean sheets and scoring goals for fun, that no longer seems the case, they say winning the title isn’t the hard part, retaining it is.  Every football team and fan looked at the fixture list to see when they would be playing City, when you become the Champions everyone wants to knock you off your perch and take your scalp.  The pressure wasn’t on City last season but this season it is and they need to show the league they can handle the added pressure and thrive on it just like their local rivals have done for so many years.

City have more quality in their side and need to get back to winning ways. They are winning games by not playing well at the moment but it’s only a matter of time before they start clicking again and I expect that to start tomorrow.

Lay Liverpool (1.62, Betfair) to beat Newcastle

Liverpool odds to beat Newcastle are far too short, currently trading on average at 1.62 with Betfair, that’s a poor price for a team mid table against a Newcastle side who finished 5^th last season.  Brendan Rodgers has found out rebuilding this Liverpool team will take time, they now play the passing game Rodgers brings to his sides but his players are still getting used to the new style of play.  Liverpool don’t have the team or squad to compete for the Premiership title with Champions league qualification being a big ask for a side who rely heavily on Gerrard and Saurez.  Liverpool have won 2 drawn 4 and lost 3 matches this season scoring 12 goals and conceding 14, winning only won 1 game at home beating Reading 1.0, Newcastle will be tougher opposition.

Newcastle have had a slightly better start to the season sitting 2 places and 3 points above their opponents in 10^th position, winning 3 games, drawing 4 and losing 2.  Alan Pardew has brought stability to Newcastle, they are a massive club who have been on a rollercoaster ride for years but now seem to have found their way with a competitive side on the pitch a settled boardroom and more importantly happy supporters.  Newcastle have been hard to beat this season only losing to Chelsea and Manchester United, the defence is a solid unit, Cabaye and Ben Arfa are both in good form and upfront they have the league top goalscorer, Demba Ba.  Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 2 matches and will cause Liverpool Problems on Sunday.

This game has always been a tight affair in the past, some of the best games in the history of the premiership have come in this fixture, the 4:3 classics spring to mind.  Liverpool are too up and down with too few many average players, a Liverpool win is too short a price and needs to be laid against Newcastle.