Monday, 15 October 2012

Tuesday 16th October

Two from three on Saturday for a small profit.  Midweek and onto a couple of international fixtures.

Spain (1/2, Ladbrokes) to beat France

There probably isn't much I can tell you about the reigning European and World Cup Winners you don’t already know. Spain are the standout nation in world football today, with their own unique style of play that every team/nation in the modern game look to emulate. Spain’s philosophy is to let the ball do the work. Every player including the goalkeeper and defenders play football. Spain start attacks from the back, are comfortable on the ball, keep possession and pass it round until gaps arrive in the opposition. If they lose the ball they press and pressure high up the pitch and in packs to retrieve the ball. Movement on and off the ball is fantastic, even the best nations in the world struggle to get a foot in the game, often leaving the pitch shattered and frustrated, after chasing shadows for 90 minutes. Spain could have sent out 2 teams in the European Championships this summer and no one would have been surprised if they had both reached the final. English fans will be well aware of players like Cazorla of Arsenal and Mata of Chelsea, both have looked world beaters in the premiership this season and neither can get in the Spain starting 11! Mata isn't even in the squad, that tells you just how good Spain are! This Spanish team is even stronger than the team that won the European Championship thanks to the return of their all time top scorer, David Villa, who has 52 Goals from 84 Caps.

France are in a transitional period. They are no longer the force they were in the late 90’s when they won the European Championship and World Cup. Gone are the big name superstars renowned as the best players in the world, the Zidanes, Henrys and Vieras of this world are no more. Their main stars today are Franck Ribery and the hot and cold Kazim Benzema. France had a very poor European Championship this summer, only squeezing through the group stages as runners up. Losing to Sweden, beating Ukraine and drawing with England before losing in the knockout stages to tomorrows opponents Spain. Since that loss Laurent Blanc has departed and World Cup winning midfielder Didier Deschamps (better known as the water carrier during his playing days) has taken over as manager. This game will be won in the midfield, I expect the French midfield to be over run and outplayed by the creativeness and simple football played by the Spanish Maestros. A French centre midfield of Cabaye, Mavuba and Menez won’t be able to deal with the Spanish midfield, no matter who they select to play.

Unlike Spain, France don’t know their best starting 11 and are bedding in new players to try and find out what it is. Away at the home of the World and European Champions is not the place they will find answers to the above. Deschamps has come into the French national side with different ideas and a different way of playing to that of Blanc, and it will take this team time to settle and time to get used to his style of play. France are Spain’s only rivals to win this group, the other teams are weak so the group could well boil down H2H between these two great nations. Both teams have won their opening 2 games so tomorrow night is a huge game for both sides. Spain can’t take the opposition lightly tomorrow and will need to win all 3 points in order to heap pressure on the French and reduce the pressure on themselves. Spain to win this and move 3 points clear of their closest rivals.

Uruguay DNB (21/20, William Hill) to beat Bolivia (draw = stakes returned)

Uruguay are a strong force in world football today, in the FiFA world ranking they are 7th, 1 position above this summer’s European Champion runners up, Italy. Uruguay have consistently performed well for the past 5 years and are suddenly a Nation to be feared on the football pitch. The team have been playing together for years, with almost the whole squad playing their domestic football in Europe and for high profile teams. With a solid defence, a well orchestrated midfield and a strike force most nations would dream of with the likes of in form Suarez and Cavani as well as the veteran and the man voted player of the last world cup, Diego Forlan. Uruguay on their day are a match for any opposition as shown in the previous Copa America, which they won, beating the likes of Brazil and Argentina to the South American Cup. Uruguay have had a steady start to World Cup qualification winning 3, drawing 3 and losing 2 games. They will be looking to push on now after not winning in their last 3 qualifiers, with away loses to inform Colombia and Argentina and a poor home draw against Ecuador.

Bolivia are one of the weaker sides in the South American Qualifiers and have so far only won 1 of their opening 8 games, that coming against bottom side Paraguay. Conceding 13 goals in qualification so far and only scoring 8 goals from their 8 games. Unlike Uruguay they don’t have many players plying their trade in Europe or the wealth of talent and match winning players upfront. Their top scorer in qualifying is midfielder Escobar who only has 2 goals to his name, compared to the 7 Suarez and Cavani have between them. Bolivia came back from 1:0 down in their last qualifier at home to Peru, but I expect Uruguay to go on and win the game should they take the lead in this one.

After not winning in their previous 3 qualifiers Uruguay will want to get back to winning ways tomorrow night. This could well be a tight game but should Uruguay get their noses in front early I can see them going on to win with ease. Either way I can only see one winner, whatever happens I don’t see Bolivia adding to their 1 and only win, and with favourable odds, draw no bet seems the standout selection with the least risk. The Blue and White of Uruguay to prevail in this one.

Saturday, 13 October 2012

Saturday 13th October

A great start last weekend. All 3 bets winning thanks to away wins for Arsenal, Tranmere and Sheffield United. This weekend its all about the home wins! No international selections for the sole reason the prices were not accurate or worth investment. The odds didn’t reflect the risk, and the big nations were overpriced! So its League 1 and League 2 this weekend. Don’t let that put you off though, there are some cracking bets waiting to earn us all money.  I prefer to keep hold of my money than place a bet for the sake of it.  A selection telling you to keep hold of your money is better than a losing selection, so don’t be surprised if on occasions not having a bet is the pick of the week.  Not this week however, so let’s get down to business…


Back Tranmere (8/11, Blue Square) to beat Yeovil

Those who followed the selections last week would have read my write-up on Tranmere.  The pros and cons to their team, and why I rate them so highly this season – those of you who haven’t read last week’s preview, I advise you to do so. I can’t speak highly enough of the job Ronnie Moore is doing at Tranmere and the way his team are playing.  I don’t expect the winning run to end this weekend, they have too much class for a Yeovil side who leak goals.

Yeovil stopped the rot last weekend with their first win in 7 matches, a 3-1 home win against a Colchester side who don't travel well, winning once in 15 away fixtures.  The one concern I have tomorrow is Yeovil know where the back of the net is, scoring 17 goals this season.  However they don’t have a star striker up front and Tranmere possess the best defence in the league, conceding only 6 goals.

Nothing here to suggest the Tranmere Rovers Express will slow down anytime soon. Another home win and goals to add to the 13 they have already scored in 5 home games this season.

Back Gillingham (7/10, Bet Victor) to beat Aldershot

Unfancied preseason for promotion, Gillingham are at the summit of League 2, and rightly so. Martin Allen is well known for leasing new life into teams when he initially takes charge as manager but it doesn’t always last. He gets the best out of his players, he makes training fun and creates a great togetherness in the dressing room. Only the other week when they played away "Mad Dog" Allen let a female post office worker, a fan he meet when leaving the team bus, deliver his team talk! I believe Allen's Gillingham will last the season at the hefty heights and gain promotion.  Not only do they have a good manager, they have good squad depth with many talented players. A solid defence and two good young midfielders. Upfront they have the lot, Danny Kedwell is the out and out striker who puts the ball in the net (8 in 11).  Former premiership striker Deon Burton pulls the strings, at 35 Burton still looks divisions better than league two, picking his passes creating many chances and helping out with his fair share of goals (4 in 10).  Robbie Findley the speed demon has to make do with a position on the bench, such is their strength.

Aldershot are 2nd from bottom with 8 points to their name after 11 games.  With 2 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses. They have scored a lowly 10 goals this season and have relied heavily on Craig Reid to score them (6 this season). Aldershot have lost their last 5 games in a row, conceding 10 goals in those fixtures and 17 goals in total this season. On that kind of form they will be in trouble against the league leaders.

I don’t see Aldershot’s losing streak ending today. Gillingham have too much strength and too many options in the team not to win this games. Another disappointing coach journey home for the away side.

Back Fleetwood Town (4/6, William Hill) to beat Wycombe Wanderers

2 teams that are heading in different directions meet at Park Avenue on Saturday.  Fleetwood gained promotion last season as Conference Champions.  This is their first season in the football leagues and they have started well.  Wycombe were relegated from League 1 last season and have started the new season very poorly. Fleetwood are 3rd in League 2, collecting 21 points from 11 games, Winning 6, drawing 3 and losing 2. Fleetwood have a wealth of strikers to choose from upfront with all 4 strikers in good form so far this season. Ball, Gillespie and Mangan have each scored twice and football league veteran John Park has scored 3 times.  They have goals throughout the team, scoring 18 goals this season, only conceding on 10 occasions. Fleetwood haven't lost in their last 4 matches and I expect them to beat a poor Wycombe side at home.

Things haven't got any better for Wycombe since being relegated last season.  They are one place above the relegation zone thanks to a goal difference of -6 and have only picked up 8 points with 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 loses.  They have played one less game than the rest of the league, having only played 10.  Wycombe are averaging a goal a game, having scored only 10 goals, with their strikers struggling with 2 between them. Wycombe have won their last 2 games, at home in the league to Torquay and away in the Football League Trophy at Portsmouth. Don’t let those wins fall you, Wycombe are not a good side, having won before once in 20 games!

Expect Fleetwood to keep marching on in this one and for Wycombe to get back to losing ways.

Friday, 5 October 2012

Saturday 6th October

Back Arsenal (Evens, General) to beat West Ham

Since being promoted via the playoffs last season West Ham have had a great start to life back in the big time, taking back to Premiership life well and producing the best start of all the promoted sides. They sit 9th in the league table, one position above today’s opponents, Arsenal. Apart from the opening day defeat at the Liberty Stadium against Swansea, a 3-0 hammering (pardon the pun) they have won 2 and drawn 2. I also need to mention they have a fantastic home record, losing only once in their last 17 league home matches, that loss coming to Reading who went on to win the Championship last season.

Arsenal have also started the season brightly, they may sit 10th but consider that they have played away at Liverpool and Man City as well as facing Chelsea at home last weekend. 9 points from the opening 6 games against the sides Arsenal have played is respectable. Confidence is high at the Emirates this season and rightly so. They have breached the gap between midfield and attack left by the departing Cesc Fabregas and Nasri with the creativeness and inspiration of Corzola. Arteta looks more comfortable in the holding role than Song, who last season kept creeping forward, and in Podolski they have a man to take over where Van Persie left off last season in terms of putting the ball in the back of the net

Arsenal will by no means have an easy day at the office against West Ham, as written above the Hammers have a very good home record. However Arsenal are somewhat a “bogey” team for the Hammers and although past history doesn't count for much nowadays Arsene Wenger will have fond memories of his visits to Upton Park. This fixture would have been one Arsene would have noted down pre season as 3 points. Add that to the fact they lost to Chelsea last week and everything points to an away win.

I see West Ham struggling for creativity against Arsenal and an attacking edge, although the return of Carroll will most defiantly cause the Arsenal defence problems. The home side will struggle to keep the ball and overall possession should go to Arsenal, who will bide their time and wait for gaps to show in the defence before exploiting them. Arsenal will want to get back to winning ways after last week’s loss to Chelsea and I cannot see anything other than an away win.

Lay Notts County (2.22, Betfair) to beat Tranmere

This weekend sees two early flying teams in league one come head to head. Tranmere currently sit top of the pile, leading the pack after 10 games played with 24 points (7 wins, 3 draws, 0 loses) and are scoring goals for fun (25 in total). Along with MK Dons they have conceded the fewest goals (6 in total). The return of manager Ronnie Moore as manager in March 2012 has had a massive impact on the team who now have direction and hunger. Rovers are keeping the ball on the ground and playing some delightful football this season and the team looks happy and full of confidence. Moore is getting the best out of his players, with the likes of Andy Robinson and Akpa Akpro both having a new lease of life this season. In young Welshman, Jake Cassidy, they have a real gem. Cassidy, who is still only 19 got his chance with the first team at the back end of last season and he didn't disappoint, scoring 5 goals in 10 games. This season he already has 7 in the same amount of games, the boy has a very bright future ahead.

Notts County currently sit 4th in the league with 18 points (5 wins, 3 draws, 2 loses) scoring 17 goals and conceding 10. Only 1 of County 5 wins has come in the last 5 games, drawing 3 and losing the other. County are a good home side and will certainly ask Tranmere questions during the game with the ageing Lee Hughes likely to test Williams in the Rovers goal. That said, County are very hot and cold. Even if on Saturday they are hot, Rovers will have the hose to put out their fire.

With the rich vein of form and the confidence in the Tranmere team they will come home with at least a point. Add the fact that Tranmere are unbeaten all season, laying Notts County to beat Tranmere is a solid choice.

Back Sheffield United Draw No Bet (4/7 Paddy Power) to beat Leyton Orient

Sheffield United have started the season sluggishly, they are still yet to lose a game however 6 draws from their opening 10 games is nothing to be proud of. I originally picked this match out as an away win but am concerned by the amount of goals United are scoring this season. 14 goals in 10 games isn't prolific and apart from the 5-3 goalfest against Bournemouth they have failed to score more than one goal in all their games except last week, scoring 2 away to Hartlepool. Let’s hope that’s the start of a scoring frenzy for United as without the jailed Ched Evans they have looked light upfront.

Leyton Orient had a dreadful start to the season, losing their opening 3 fixtures. Since then the O’s have really picked up form, beating the likes of Swindon, Brentford and Yeovil and conceding only 1 goal in the process. In the last round of games the O’s travelled to Walsall and came back with all 3 points. Just like Sheffield United, Leyton Orient haven’t been prolific upfront and don’t have an out and out striker they can rely on to score goals. Orient have been working on a shoe string for years and don’t pull the crowds they used to, meaning investment in players is minimal as they struggle to compete with the big teams in this league. What they do posses is a well oiled machine where every player knows his job and works hard for his team. They have only conceded 10 goals this season, so are solid at the back.

The one worry with this game is the lack of goals and the strong defences both teams posses. Under 2.5 goals had been considered for the reasons above but I don’t expect Sheffield United to lose this game and I do expect them to wake up in front of goal and give someone a pasting sooner or later. Let’s hope it’s the 'sooner' on Saturday at Brisbane Road. Leyton Orient won’t be taking the 3 points here. I can see a Sheffield United win or at worse a draw.

Wednesday, 3 October 2012

The Service Begins

Welcome to CKL Football Tips.  This is a service that has been several years in the making and is brought to you by Chris Little who has over fifteen years of experience in football betting markets.  The internet is awash with football tipping websites full of incredible boasts about their success.  We will make no such claims.  We will let our results during the 2012/13 football season do the talking.

The service will not be a difficult or time consuming one to follow.  Selections will be provided with full analysis every Friday and Monday evening, covering the weekend and midweek games respectively.  Typically there will be between one and three selections per post.  The most straightforward and transparant approach will be used to record bets: every selection will carry 1 point.

Prices advised and recorded will be ones that are genuinely available at the time of publication.  Where betting exchange prices are used a 5% deduction will be made to account for commission.  We tip our selections on Twitter and the excellent OLBG website as a means to proof our selections.