Monday 15 October 2012

Tuesday 16th October

Two from three on Saturday for a small profit.  Midweek and onto a couple of international fixtures.

Spain (1/2, Ladbrokes) to beat France

There probably isn't much I can tell you about the reigning European and World Cup Winners you don’t already know. Spain are the standout nation in world football today, with their own unique style of play that every team/nation in the modern game look to emulate. Spain’s philosophy is to let the ball do the work. Every player including the goalkeeper and defenders play football. Spain start attacks from the back, are comfortable on the ball, keep possession and pass it round until gaps arrive in the opposition. If they lose the ball they press and pressure high up the pitch and in packs to retrieve the ball. Movement on and off the ball is fantastic, even the best nations in the world struggle to get a foot in the game, often leaving the pitch shattered and frustrated, after chasing shadows for 90 minutes. Spain could have sent out 2 teams in the European Championships this summer and no one would have been surprised if they had both reached the final. English fans will be well aware of players like Cazorla of Arsenal and Mata of Chelsea, both have looked world beaters in the premiership this season and neither can get in the Spain starting 11! Mata isn't even in the squad, that tells you just how good Spain are! This Spanish team is even stronger than the team that won the European Championship thanks to the return of their all time top scorer, David Villa, who has 52 Goals from 84 Caps.

France are in a transitional period. They are no longer the force they were in the late 90’s when they won the European Championship and World Cup. Gone are the big name superstars renowned as the best players in the world, the Zidanes, Henrys and Vieras of this world are no more. Their main stars today are Franck Ribery and the hot and cold Kazim Benzema. France had a very poor European Championship this summer, only squeezing through the group stages as runners up. Losing to Sweden, beating Ukraine and drawing with England before losing in the knockout stages to tomorrows opponents Spain. Since that loss Laurent Blanc has departed and World Cup winning midfielder Didier Deschamps (better known as the water carrier during his playing days) has taken over as manager. This game will be won in the midfield, I expect the French midfield to be over run and outplayed by the creativeness and simple football played by the Spanish Maestros. A French centre midfield of Cabaye, Mavuba and Menez won’t be able to deal with the Spanish midfield, no matter who they select to play.

Unlike Spain, France don’t know their best starting 11 and are bedding in new players to try and find out what it is. Away at the home of the World and European Champions is not the place they will find answers to the above. Deschamps has come into the French national side with different ideas and a different way of playing to that of Blanc, and it will take this team time to settle and time to get used to his style of play. France are Spain’s only rivals to win this group, the other teams are weak so the group could well boil down H2H between these two great nations. Both teams have won their opening 2 games so tomorrow night is a huge game for both sides. Spain can’t take the opposition lightly tomorrow and will need to win all 3 points in order to heap pressure on the French and reduce the pressure on themselves. Spain to win this and move 3 points clear of their closest rivals.

Uruguay DNB (21/20, William Hill) to beat Bolivia (draw = stakes returned)

Uruguay are a strong force in world football today, in the FiFA world ranking they are 7th, 1 position above this summer’s European Champion runners up, Italy. Uruguay have consistently performed well for the past 5 years and are suddenly a Nation to be feared on the football pitch. The team have been playing together for years, with almost the whole squad playing their domestic football in Europe and for high profile teams. With a solid defence, a well orchestrated midfield and a strike force most nations would dream of with the likes of in form Suarez and Cavani as well as the veteran and the man voted player of the last world cup, Diego Forlan. Uruguay on their day are a match for any opposition as shown in the previous Copa America, which they won, beating the likes of Brazil and Argentina to the South American Cup. Uruguay have had a steady start to World Cup qualification winning 3, drawing 3 and losing 2 games. They will be looking to push on now after not winning in their last 3 qualifiers, with away loses to inform Colombia and Argentina and a poor home draw against Ecuador.

Bolivia are one of the weaker sides in the South American Qualifiers and have so far only won 1 of their opening 8 games, that coming against bottom side Paraguay. Conceding 13 goals in qualification so far and only scoring 8 goals from their 8 games. Unlike Uruguay they don’t have many players plying their trade in Europe or the wealth of talent and match winning players upfront. Their top scorer in qualifying is midfielder Escobar who only has 2 goals to his name, compared to the 7 Suarez and Cavani have between them. Bolivia came back from 1:0 down in their last qualifier at home to Peru, but I expect Uruguay to go on and win the game should they take the lead in this one.

After not winning in their previous 3 qualifiers Uruguay will want to get back to winning ways tomorrow night. This could well be a tight game but should Uruguay get their noses in front early I can see them going on to win with ease. Either way I can only see one winner, whatever happens I don’t see Bolivia adding to their 1 and only win, and with favourable odds, draw no bet seems the standout selection with the least risk. The Blue and White of Uruguay to prevail in this one.

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