Friday 5 October 2012

Saturday 6th October

Back Arsenal (Evens, General) to beat West Ham

Since being promoted via the playoffs last season West Ham have had a great start to life back in the big time, taking back to Premiership life well and producing the best start of all the promoted sides. They sit 9th in the league table, one position above today’s opponents, Arsenal. Apart from the opening day defeat at the Liberty Stadium against Swansea, a 3-0 hammering (pardon the pun) they have won 2 and drawn 2. I also need to mention they have a fantastic home record, losing only once in their last 17 league home matches, that loss coming to Reading who went on to win the Championship last season.

Arsenal have also started the season brightly, they may sit 10th but consider that they have played away at Liverpool and Man City as well as facing Chelsea at home last weekend. 9 points from the opening 6 games against the sides Arsenal have played is respectable. Confidence is high at the Emirates this season and rightly so. They have breached the gap between midfield and attack left by the departing Cesc Fabregas and Nasri with the creativeness and inspiration of Corzola. Arteta looks more comfortable in the holding role than Song, who last season kept creeping forward, and in Podolski they have a man to take over where Van Persie left off last season in terms of putting the ball in the back of the net

Arsenal will by no means have an easy day at the office against West Ham, as written above the Hammers have a very good home record. However Arsenal are somewhat a “bogey” team for the Hammers and although past history doesn't count for much nowadays Arsene Wenger will have fond memories of his visits to Upton Park. This fixture would have been one Arsene would have noted down pre season as 3 points. Add that to the fact they lost to Chelsea last week and everything points to an away win.

I see West Ham struggling for creativity against Arsenal and an attacking edge, although the return of Carroll will most defiantly cause the Arsenal defence problems. The home side will struggle to keep the ball and overall possession should go to Arsenal, who will bide their time and wait for gaps to show in the defence before exploiting them. Arsenal will want to get back to winning ways after last week’s loss to Chelsea and I cannot see anything other than an away win.

Lay Notts County (2.22, Betfair) to beat Tranmere

This weekend sees two early flying teams in league one come head to head. Tranmere currently sit top of the pile, leading the pack after 10 games played with 24 points (7 wins, 3 draws, 0 loses) and are scoring goals for fun (25 in total). Along with MK Dons they have conceded the fewest goals (6 in total). The return of manager Ronnie Moore as manager in March 2012 has had a massive impact on the team who now have direction and hunger. Rovers are keeping the ball on the ground and playing some delightful football this season and the team looks happy and full of confidence. Moore is getting the best out of his players, with the likes of Andy Robinson and Akpa Akpro both having a new lease of life this season. In young Welshman, Jake Cassidy, they have a real gem. Cassidy, who is still only 19 got his chance with the first team at the back end of last season and he didn't disappoint, scoring 5 goals in 10 games. This season he already has 7 in the same amount of games, the boy has a very bright future ahead.

Notts County currently sit 4th in the league with 18 points (5 wins, 3 draws, 2 loses) scoring 17 goals and conceding 10. Only 1 of County 5 wins has come in the last 5 games, drawing 3 and losing the other. County are a good home side and will certainly ask Tranmere questions during the game with the ageing Lee Hughes likely to test Williams in the Rovers goal. That said, County are very hot and cold. Even if on Saturday they are hot, Rovers will have the hose to put out their fire.

With the rich vein of form and the confidence in the Tranmere team they will come home with at least a point. Add the fact that Tranmere are unbeaten all season, laying Notts County to beat Tranmere is a solid choice.

Back Sheffield United Draw No Bet (4/7 Paddy Power) to beat Leyton Orient

Sheffield United have started the season sluggishly, they are still yet to lose a game however 6 draws from their opening 10 games is nothing to be proud of. I originally picked this match out as an away win but am concerned by the amount of goals United are scoring this season. 14 goals in 10 games isn't prolific and apart from the 5-3 goalfest against Bournemouth they have failed to score more than one goal in all their games except last week, scoring 2 away to Hartlepool. Let’s hope that’s the start of a scoring frenzy for United as without the jailed Ched Evans they have looked light upfront.

Leyton Orient had a dreadful start to the season, losing their opening 3 fixtures. Since then the O’s have really picked up form, beating the likes of Swindon, Brentford and Yeovil and conceding only 1 goal in the process. In the last round of games the O’s travelled to Walsall and came back with all 3 points. Just like Sheffield United, Leyton Orient haven’t been prolific upfront and don’t have an out and out striker they can rely on to score goals. Orient have been working on a shoe string for years and don’t pull the crowds they used to, meaning investment in players is minimal as they struggle to compete with the big teams in this league. What they do posses is a well oiled machine where every player knows his job and works hard for his team. They have only conceded 10 goals this season, so are solid at the back.

The one worry with this game is the lack of goals and the strong defences both teams posses. Under 2.5 goals had been considered for the reasons above but I don’t expect Sheffield United to lose this game and I do expect them to wake up in front of goal and give someone a pasting sooner or later. Let’s hope it’s the 'sooner' on Saturday at Brisbane Road. Leyton Orient won’t be taking the 3 points here. I can see a Sheffield United win or at worse a draw.

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