Friday 19 October 2012

Saturday 20th October

A galling midweek with a 94th minute blow in the Spain game but back to the bread and butter with a maximum confidence three selections this weekend.

Back Port Vale (5/6, Coral) to beat Wycombe

Port Vale were top of league 2 in December 2010 when then manager, Micky Adams, departed to take charge at Sheffield United.  After Adams left, Port Vale became a shadow of the impressive side that led the league at Christmas,  falling further and further down the league weekly and finishing the season outside the playoffs.  The team was the same as the one before Christmas, but without Adams at the helm they looked lost. After an unsuccessful spell at Sheffield United Adam returned to his old post in May 2011. The squad is almost the same as the one he left behind and this season he has got them playing the same way they did before he left.  Vale are second in the table after 12 league games, winning 8, drawing 2 and losing 2.  Scoring the most goals of all 92 football league and premiership teams, with a monster 28 goals, conceding only 12. Vale are in a rich vein of form, winning their last 2 league outings easily, 2-0 away against a decent Exeter side and 3-0 at home to Oxford on Monday night. Confidence is high at Hamil Road, and rightly so. Mickey has got Vale playing the football they played in his first spell at the club and has got his attackers firing. Myrie Williams has 3 goals, Dodds and Vincent 4 each and Pope leads the way with 12 (scoring 4 against promotion favourites Rotherham)


Last weekend I selected Fleetwood to put Wycombe to the sword. Unfortunately that wasn’t the case and Wycombe came home 1.0 winners, winning only their 4th game in their last 23 league outings – Typical!! I still maintain that Wycombe are a poor side, however having viewed extended highlights thanks to a Fleetwood fan (Big thanks to Ian Wells) I have to admit that Wycombe looked considerably better than the side I have seen regularly this season.  Fleetwood did have their chances to take something from the game, hitting the woodwork and coming close on occasions, the match was very much 50/50.  I still see Wycombe struggling to score goals this season and against a Port Vale side who have consistently scored multiple goals a game Wycombe will struggle to come home with a share of the spoils.

Even a rejuvenated Wycombe full of confidence after winning their last 3 outings won’t be able to stop an equally confident Port Vale who will be looking to close the gap at the top of the too Gillingham, and increase their goal difference.   

Back Over 2.5 goals (8/11, Stan James) in the West Ham/Southampton game

West Ham sit comfortably 8th in the league table. 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. Scoring 8 goals and conceding the same in the process. If you take away their last match against an in form Arsenal where they lost by 3 goals to 1, they have only conceded 5 goals in 6 games and 1 goal in 3 home games.  This should indicate that the West Ham defence is a solid unit with the team defending well as a whole, but to me, it doesn’t.  The hammers beat a below par Aston Villa in their first home game of the season, beat an out of sorts Fulham to nil who were struggling for fire power due to losing Dempsey and Dembele on deadline day (the day before that match).  Conceded only once against a Sunderland side who scored early and tried to see out the game 1.0, before conceding a late equaliser.  West Ham are a very open, attacking side, when they play both teams have opportunities in front of goal, with end to end football seen from both sides competing at Upton Park. A defence of Demel, Collins, Tomkins and Reid doesn’t scream clean sheets, but a creative midfield with the likes of Diame, Taylor, Noble and Nolan has goals in them.  They will feed off knockdowns from Andy Carroll like they did so well against Fulham. Carroll was a thorn in Fulham’s side all afternoon when they won 3-0 and was the focal point of every attack. Add new summer signing Jarvis into the mix and he will deliver the crosses for Andy to get on the end off.

Southampton have had the toughest opening fixtures of any premiership side this season. After 7 games they have already played the likes of Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal and Everton. That’s one tough fixture list for a newly promoted team, so it won’t surprise you that they have conceded a whopping 20 goals! What will surprise you is they have scored a very respectable 12 goals, scoring against all 4 of the big sides named above, that’s good going! I rate Southampton highly, they have good, hardworking players, and in Nigel Adkins they have a fantastic manager who knows what he is working with, and how to get the best out of his players.  I personally think they will survive their debut season back in the Premiership as they are a very competitive side and can give anyone a game on their day, as shown in their opening fixture when they came back from behind to let a 2-1 lead slip away at the home of the Champions, Manchester City, eventually losing the game 3-2. The Saints certainly have goals in their side with the likes of record signing Ramirez (unfortunately injured for this match), Lallana, Davis, young Rodriguez and upfront Rickie Lambert, who is a natural goal scorer and reminds me of Alan Shearer in the way he plays and constantly finds the back of the net.  6 out of the 7 games Southampton have played in the league have been over 2.5 goals, and I don’t expect that to change against West Ham on Saturday.

This open game between two evenly matched teams with similar playing styles has goals written all over it. Neither team is one to sit back or hold onto a 1 goal lead, both will be looking to attack and score more goals than the other. Expect a highly entertaining end to end game with lots of goals.

Back Arsenal (4/7, Paddy Power) to beat Norwich

Arsenal to beat Norwich is the selection for Saturday’s evening Kick-off. As previously stated in my preview to the Arsenal/West Ham match where we backed the Gunners to win at Even money, Arsenal have started the season brightly.  After tough opening fixtures away at Liverpool and Man City as well as the home fixture against Chelsea the gunners have got into their groove, and have won their last 2 matches.  If you haven’t already read the preview I suggest you do so, as it will help put your mind at ease that an Arsenal win on Saturday evening is the correct selection. It’s often hard for the away team after an international break with 2 games in that period, but what with the extra days rest, now that internationals are played on a Friday and Tuesday, there should be no complaints about recuperation time. Unlike a Man City, Arsenal don’t have any South American players, so don’t have to worry about them arriving home late and with Fatigue, the Ivory Coast didn’t have games in this international break so Gervinho will be rested and ready to play.  Arsenal have a clean bill of health with all their international players arriving home unscathed.  Arsenal have looked bright this season, starting the campaign with confidence and a belief that they can win major honours this season with their current squad.  The Gunners have 12 points with 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss against Chelsea. Since then they have convincingly won their last 2 matches, at home to Olympiakos and away at West Ham.  I don’t expect this run to stop against a poor Norwich side who have conceded 17 goals already this season.

Norwich are having a tough second year in the premiership.  The hardest task for any promoted side that survive the drop in their first season in the top flight is to repeat that achievement the following year.  The reason it’s so hard is, teams get to know your style of play, danger men, weaknesses, and they hone in on them.  Norwich haven’t been helped by the loss of Paul Lambert, the man who kept them up last season, and are yet to settle under new boss Chris Houghton.  Norwich are finding out this season just how tough life in the premiership is, with no wins and a goal difference of -12!  Grant Holt is the Canaries main form of attack.  He is big, strong and brings others into the game with his great hold play with his back to goal.  In previous seasons Holt would have caused Arsenal numerous problems.  However with the Arsenal back 4 looking so reliable thanks to the work Steve Bold has done, and the transformation of Mertesacker, who now looks like the German defender we all expected to see last season, Arsenal shouldn’t have to many problems keeping Holt on a tight leash.  Without Holt as a focal point, Norwich don’t have many other attacking options in their side. This could well be Norwich 3rd thrashing of the season after conceding 5 at home to Liverpool, followed by 4 away at Norwich, how many will Arsenal put past them Saturday night??!

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